Cuba Economic Review: U.S. Opens Fuel Exports to Private Sector; Tourism’s Structural Decline

by Cuba Study Group

This week’s edition opens with Quick Takes on the Trump administration’s decision to open fuel exports to Cuba’s private sector, then examines how the fuel crunch has so far affected core foreign exchange earners. Sherritt’s Moa joint venture prepares to pause mining, tourism shows a “good” January that may fade as airlift tightens, and operating MIPYMES keep growing—but remain highly exposed to power and fuel disruptions.

Against that backdrop, we note a new regulatory signal from Washington: updated U.S. guidance on fuel trade clarifying that there are no quantity caps on exports to Cuba’s private sector, provided shipments are for private-sector use and economic activities, including those addressing humanitarian needs. We then flag a major policy signal: the government’s draft Housing Law, which expands space for non-state actors and introduces mortgage finance—although implementation will be decisive.

By the Numbers tracks U.S. exports to Cuba since 2000, highlighting three phases and a post-2020 rebound increasingly shaped by private importers and a shift toward meat and, more recently, vehicles. In Deep explains the trajectory of Cuban tourism and why it sits at the center of any short-term economic recovery scenario. Currently Reading previews key Helms-Burton Act Title III cases with implications for Cuba-linked business risk.

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