Cuba Economic Review: Confronting the Venezuela Shock

In this edition of our Economic Review, we dive In Deep to examine the Venezuelan shock following Maduro’s capture and its implications for Cuba, outlining two scenarios for 2026. We also examine other key events already shaping the island this year, such as the launch of a formal foreign exchange market for households and private actors. We track the consolidation of the non-state sector after a 2025 marked by slower MIPYME creation but strong import growth, the demographic deterioration reflected in rising infant mortality, and Vietnam’s ascent as an agricultural investor in Cuba. Our By the Numbers section closes the books on 2025 by looking at nominal adjustment, real contraction, and an economy increasingly segmented by access to foreign currency. Finally, we wrap up with Recommended Readings to help readers reflect on how we got to this moment and ways to think about the future.