Cuba’s crisis continues to deepen on all fronts. Last week, The Economist described the island as a country on the brink of collapse—mired in daily hardship, mass exodus, and a state increasingly unable to manage its economic and social deterioration. University of Havana economist Juan Triana echoes this assessment, arguing that recent government measures have only deepened inflation, reduced production, and fueled currency chaos. Meanwhile, domestic anxiety grows over the possibility of Chavismo’s collapse in Venezuela—the island’s main energy lifeline—as the U.S. deploys its largest military presence in the Caribbean since the Cold War, a scenario that would plunge Havana into even greater precarity.
Tensions on the ground are manifesting in familiar patterns. Two weeks ago, Cuban state security forces launched a broad media offensive against the news outlet elTOQUE over its publication of the informal exchange rate, while last week, the central bank imposed a de facto financial freeze on foreign companies’ bank accounts, further eroding investor confidence. The health situation is equally grim: the Pan American Health Organization reports that Cuba now leads the Americas in chikungunya, dengue, and oropouche cases amid overwhelmed hospitals and cities buried under uncollected waste. In response to the mounting turmoil, the government re-authorized wholesale sector access for private MSMEs and cooperatives this week—a positive policy shift that nonetheless falls short of the moment.
On the bilateral front, the period brought cooperation and tension between Cuba and the United States, though mostly tension. The Archdiocese of Miami collected and sent 43 tons of humanitarian aid to the island. The U.S. State Department demanded the release of political prisoner Donaida Pérez Paseiro and continued deportation flights to Cuba. Cuban officials are taking to X to fire daily condemnations of Trump’s military buildup around Venezuela. Meanwhile, new Census data confirm that Cuban Americans now constitute the third-largest Latino group in the United States, with a growing presence across all 50 states.
